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Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Morning Report - GDP better than expected, but Q1 revised down

Vital Statistics:
Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1683.3 -1.4 -0.08%
Eurostoxx Index 2755.1 -4.1 -0.15%
Oil (WTI) 103.6 0.5 0.46%
LIBOR 0.266 0.001 0.23%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.12 0.290 0.35%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.68% 0.07%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.8 -0.4
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.3 -0.4
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.36

Markets are slightly better after some good economic data. At 2:00 pm we will get the FOMC decision. Mortgage Applications fell. Bonds and MBS are getting beaten up on the good data.

The ADP jobs report showed the private sector added 200k jobs in July, and June was revised upward to 198k. The ADP report is supposed to mimic the final jobs number, not the advance estimate we will get on Friday. 

The advance estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in at + 1.7% This was higher than the 1% estimate. First quarter GDP was revised down by a lot... from + 1.8% to + 1.1%. That said, it looks like the growth came from inventory build as consumer spending cooled. If spending doesn't rebound, that will depress growth in the future. 

Count Richmond California as the next locality threatening to use eminent domain to seize mortgages. Unsurprisingly, SIFMA (the Securities Industry Financial Markets Association) which runs the TBA market condemned the idea. SIFMA told San Bernardino that if they proceeded down the eminent domain path, that mortgages originated in that jurisdiction would become ineligible for TBA trading. This would effectively cut off the locality from Ginnie Mae and Fannie / Freddie loans. Which is 90% of the mortgage market. FHFA nominee Mel Watt has taken a pass on the whole eminent domain issue, which is yet another reason why he faces an uphill battle for confirmation. 

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