A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Monday, July 22, 2013

Morning Report - NVR earnings

Vital Statistics:
Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1690.5 1.0 0.06%
Eurostoxx Index 2718.7 2.5 0.09%
Oil (WTI) 108.5 0.4 0.37%
LIBOR 0.265 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.35 -0.254 -0.31%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.47% -0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.6 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.2 -0.3
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.35

Markets are flat on no real news. Earnings season swings into full gear this week with an assortment of heavyweights. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Homebuilder NVR has released earnings. Looks like they were light on the bottom line, but there was a special charge. New orders increased 25%. Revenues increased 31%. NVR is east-coast focused, so it is lagging some of the West-Coast builders. Later this week, we will hear from Pulte, Standard Pacific, and D.R. Horton. It will be interesting to hear how traffic has been affected by the increase in rates.

Bill Gross thinks the Fed won't raise the Fed funds rate until 2016 at the earliest.. Of course he is talking his book, but still... Interest rate cycles are very long.. This chart comes courtesy of Barry Ritholz, with long term interest rates going back to 1790. Note that from 1930 through 1960 we also had a period of exceptionally low interest rates. 



While it is probably a very nichey product, you can buy a house for your elderly parents or college student and not have it treated as a garden-variety investment property. Fannie Mae has a program for people who want to purchase a home for a family member and don't have the money for a downpayment. Just another arrow in your quiver, LOs.


No comments:

Post a Comment