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Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Morning Report - Washington has a "eureka" moment

Vital Statistics:
Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1693.5 5.2 0.31%
Eurostoxx Index 2756.0 33.1 1.22%
Oil (WTI) 106.8 -0.4 -0.36%
LIBOR 0.264 -0.002 -0.60%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.99 0.043 0.05%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.57% 0.07%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.4 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.8 -0.3
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3

Markets are higher this morning after a good earnings report out of Apple. Bonds are again victims of the risk-on trade.

Michael Dell and Silver Lake boosted their buyout offer for Dell by ten cents to $13.75. It is their best and final offer. Dude, you're getting a dime.

Mortgage Applications fell 1.2% last week. Purchase apps were down 2.1%, while refis were more or less flat. Refi volume has dropped to 63% of total applications. The conventional index rose about 60 bps, while the govvie index dropped 7%.

The U.S. taxpayer bears the credit risk of roughly half the U.S. mortgage market and 90% of all new origination. In a true "eureka" moment, the braintrust in Washington may have finally figured out that the problem is not that they haven't slugged the banks hard enough. There is a proposal to relax the "skin in the game" rules for private label securitizations in the hopes that something other than 60% LTV / 740 FICO jumbos can be securitized in the future. The original rule was that banks would have to maintain 5% of all MBS they securitize, unless the LTV was lower than 80%. Now, they propose to require a 5% holding only for IO and stated income products. Never mind that IO and stated income are outside of the QM rules and very few market participants are willing to take non-QM risk.

The ARM is coming back


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