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Friday, July 5, 2013

Morning Report - positive jobs report

Vital Statistics:
Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1620.0 10.9 0.68%
Eurostoxx Index 2625.8 -20.7 -0.78%
Oil (WTI) 101.8 0.5 0.53%
LIBOR 0.27 -0.001 -0.37%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 84.38 1.152 1.38%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.68% 0.18%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.9 -0.5
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.6 -1.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 203.5 -0.7
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4

Green on the screen after a strong jobs report. Stocks are up, while bonds and MBS are getting hammered

Note: many desks are going to be understaffed today as senior traders take a 4 day weekend. Thin markets tend to be volatile

The jobs report was pretty good, which is why bonds are selling off. Payrolls increased 195k vs the 165k expectations and the prior two months were revised upward by a total of 70k. The unemployment rate stayed the same at 7.6%. The labor force participation rate ticked up .1%. Hourly  earnings increased, while hours were unchanged. 

The employment report probably does not change anything with respect to the Fed's intentions. They plan on tapering back purchases this year, and plan to end QE entirely when the unemployment rate reaches 7%, which they expect to happen in mid 2014. 

With this report, the 10 year bond yield spiked to 2.68%. We should be best-exing into 4s at this point.

The MR will be spotty next week as I will be in SF for the Western Secondary Conference.

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