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Monday, July 8, 2013

Morning Report - Job report aftermath

Vital Statistics:
Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1634.1 6.8 0.42%
Eurostoxx Index 2654.1 58.1 2.24%
Oil (WTI) 102.5 -0.7 -0.72%
LIBOR 0.269 -0.001 -0.48%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 84.31 -0.140 -0.17%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.68% -0.06%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 102.6 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.5 0.4
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 203.5 -0.7
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.64

Markets are higher this morning as European stock markets rally.  Bonds and MBS are up

Friday's jobs report turned into a bloodbath for bonds. The 10 year yield jumped 24 bps, as did the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Nearly 200,000 jobs were added in June, while May and April were revised upward by 70,000. Goldman and JPM moved up their estimate for the start of FEXIT (Fed exit) to the Sep FOMC meeting from the Dec meeting.

Given the unofficial 4 day weekend, trading desks were understaffed on Friday, which means the markets may have overshot. Thin markets tend to be volatile markets.

The jobs report did a number on mortgage backed securities as well. The Fannie Mae 4s had their worst day since the whole sell-off began as they lost nearly 2 points. That explains why the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage increased by 24bps on Fri.

Chart: Fannie Mae August 4s TBA:


We don't have much in the way of economic data this week, with the exception of the FOMC minutes on Wed. That is probably the only thing that would be market-moving this week. The Western MBA Secondary Conference is this week in San Francisco, so a lot of traders will be out there for that. 

Alcoa kicks off 2Q earnings season after the close. 

The MR will be spotty the rest of the week as I will be in SF for the secondary conference


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