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Thursday, July 18, 2013

Morning Report: Day 2 of testimony

Vital Statistics:
Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1677.3 1.7 0.10%
Eurostoxx Index 2685.2 3.3 0.12%
Oil (WTI) 106.7 0.3 0.23%
LIBOR 0.266 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.87 0.160 0.19%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.49% 0.00%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.6 4.8
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104 0.3
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 201.1 -0.5
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.35

Markets are flattish ahead of Day 2 of Ben Bernanke's testimony. Initial Jobless Claims dropped back to 334k after spiking to 358k the weak before. Bonds and MBS are flat. In earnings, Intel and Ebay missed, while Morgan Stanley beat.

The Bernank goes in front of the Senate this morning at 10:30. Most of the newsworthy tidbits should have been released yesterday, but be aware - rates could get volatile. 

The Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote on Mel Watt to head FHFA. If he gets nominated, expect the government to start forgiving principal on underwater conforming loans and probably HARP 3.0. Watt is an affordable housing guy who will push for loan forgiveness and easier access to credit for low-income borrowers. Maybe the refi boom will have one last gasp.

Most of Bernanke's testimony was old news, but there were some new revelations. The biggest one is that the Fed intends to roll over maturing MBS into new MBS even after QE ends. There was a fear that the Fed would sell their holdings. So that should put downward pressure on mortgage rates. Second, Bernanke said that as long as inflation is below their target rate, the Fed Funds rate is going nowhere. Finally, he mentioned de-leveraging as one of the main reasons why rates shot up so much. There has been a suspicion in the market that the carry trade was the real target. 


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