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Thursday, August 1, 2013

Morning Report - Dovish FOMC

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1692.9 12.4 0.74%
Eurostoxx Index 2797.4 29.2 1.06%
Oil (WTI) 106.9 1.9 1.82%
LIBOR 0.266 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.06 0.605 0.74%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.63% 0.06%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.3 -0.2
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.7 -0.3
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.39

Stock markets are higher after a dovish FOMC statement yesterday and lower than expected initial jobless claims. Bond and MBS are down.

The FOMC statement was interpreted as dovish yesterday. There wasn't any discussion of tapering, as the Fed seemed to go back to its older language that said QE could increase or decrease depending on the data. They are forecasting that the economy will improve through the second half of the year. The only other notable change was that they reaffirmed the risks of dis-inflation, which was enough to get previous dissenter James Bullard back in the fold. 

The 10 year had sold off hard on the ADP jobs number and the GDP number, but it rallied hard after the statement. The range was 2.57% to 2.7%. You can see just how big the swing was below:


The final shoe to drop will be the jobs report on Friday. 

The Case-Shiller first quarter report is out. Most of the info is old news, but some is not. CoreLogic is forecasting that prices increase 6.5% year over year over the next 12 months. Over the next 5 years, they expect prices to increase at a 4% per year rate. The usual suspected - Phoenix, Sacramento, etc are leading the charge. Bringing up the rear are Long Island, Hartford, Edison NJ, Kansas City, and Newark. 

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