A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Friday, March 8, 2013

Morning Report


Vital Statistics:

LastChangePercent
S&P Futures 1547.83.40.18%
Eurostoxx Index2744.542.61.40%
Oil (WTI)91.3-0.2-0.27%
LIBOR0.2810.0010.36%
US Dollar Index (DXY)82.41-0.045-0.05%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield2.06%0.05%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index194.9-0.3


Markets are higher this morning after a positive jobs report. Payrolls increased by 236k in Feb, higher than the 165k forecast. January was revised down. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7% from 7.9%, however the labor force participation rate fell as well, which means that number isn't as great as it initially appears.  Bonds are getting clocked, with the 10-year solidly above 2% again. MBS are down as well.

The rally in the stock market and rebounding house prices has returned US wealth to its pre-crash levels. Of course the main driver has been the stock market, not real estate, so don't expect this to get us back to pre-crisis levels of consumer spending.  Still, its a start.

The Fed has released the results of its stress tests for the banks. The stress test is a scenario of 12.1% unemployment, a 50% drop in the stock market, and a 20% drop in real estate.  They predict that Tier I capital would fall from 11.1% to 7.7%, which is still above minimum standards.

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