| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1548.9 | 6.7 | 0.43% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2705.4 | 33.5 | 1.25% |
| Oil (WTI) | 92.95 | 0.8 | 0.86% |
| LIBOR | 0.284 | 0.002 | 0.71% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 82.73 | -0.264 | -0.32% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.94% | 0.03% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 192.3 | -0.3 |
S&P futures are rallying after Cyprus rejected a bank deposit tax designed to help keep it in the euro. Investors are betting that the ECB will continue to support the country's banking system. Given the "risk on" feel, bonds and MBS are down.
Mortgage applications fell 7.1% last week. Fedex missed and guided down. Fedex can usually be taken to be an economic bellwether, but this miss was due more to overseas problems and pricing pressures. I would not take this news to mean that Fedex is forecasting a deceleration in the economy.
The Fed will release the FOMC decision today around 2:00pm. Nobody expects any major policy changes; the focus will be on when QE ends. Economists are predicting the Fed will start withdrawing from the market in Q4. It probably won't be an abrupt withdrawal - they will slow the pace of purchases and re-evaluate at the next meeting. The Bernank will hold a press conference today at 2:30.
Homebuilder Toll Brothers CEO Douglas Yearley said on Bloomberg TV that there is "no inventory on the market" and the company feels "really good" about Spring. Detroit (yes, Detroit) is their best market in the Midwest. NoVa, DC remain strong (so no sequestration fears panning out). He sees orders up 49% this spring.
Sen Bob Corker (R-TN) is hoping to see the GSEs have a technocrat, not a politician in charge of the agencies. The WH has been considering Rep Mel Watt (D-NC) to lead FHFA. The current left vs right battle in this issue centers around principal reduction mods for Fan and Fred loans. Ed DeMarco, the current head of FHFA, has been resisting calls to reduce principal for Fan and Fred loans. The main reason - the fear that principal mods could trigger a wave of delinquencies as the "not-so-needy" figure out they can reduce their mortgage balance by simply refusing to make their payments. Second, Republicans rightly point out that the GSEs have been used as a tool of social policy and that there have been some unintended consequences. The job of the FHFA director is to look out for the taxpayers, not conduct social engineering, and if nominated, Rep Watt faces a tough road to confirmation. There is very little consensus between Democrats and Republicans over what the replacement for the GSEs should look like.
Abby Joseph Fink? Blackrock CEO Laurence Fink is predicting a 20% rise in the stock market this year. He also says that Cyprus is a "$10 billion issue" that is more of a symbolic than real economic issue.
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