Morning Report - Construction worker shortage

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change	Percent
S&P Futures	1542.5	-2.0	-0.13%
Eurostoxx Index	2712.8	-16.0	-0.59%
Oil (WTI)	91.9	0.0	-0.05%
LIBOR	0.28	0.000	0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY)	82.75	0.057	0.07%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	2.05%	0.01%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index	194.2	-0.6

Markets are slightly weaker this morning after Fitch downgraded Italy's sovereign debt. This week is light data-wise.  We have retail sales on Wed, and industrial production / capacity utilization on Friday. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Legal and business experts have weighed in on the government's case against S&P and have found it, well, wanting. Turns out they don't have any witnesses who will support allegations that S&P intentionally defrauded banks and the credit unions that are the victims in this case. In reality, the victims are not widows and orphans, but sophisticated institutional investors. And it is hard to argue that S&P were the smartest guys in the room and knew that the financial system was about to collapse when everyone else (Moody's, the Fed, etc) did not.

Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke gave a speech to the Mortgage Bankers Association where she predicted that the housing recovery is real and is poised to accelerate. She does note that inventory is very low, and credit standards are very tight which is making it difficult for the first time homebuyer who is going to drive demand in the housing sector. Apparently the fraction of mortgages going to first-time homebuyers is half of what it was in the early 00s. The low housing formation numbers of the past few years represent a lot of pent-up demand and the Fed is forecasting that it should reach 1.5 million a year. Of course some of those people will rent, but still it will drive home prices higher, especially when you consider housing starts had been stuck around 600k - 800k since the bubble burst. Finally, the Fed is watching liquidity in the MBS market and is prepared to slow purchases if it thinks that it is dominating the market.

On the back of last Friday's jobs report, it turns out that there a shortage of construction workers. Builders in some areas are finding it difficult to find workers and are having to raise wages to attract them. It turns out a lot of them left the residential construction industry after the bust and took jobs in trucking and energy. Interestingly, housing starts are up 24% or so YOY, while construction employment is up only 3%. In some ways, the weak housing market probably exacerbates this problem as many workers are stuck in an underwater house and cannot move to where the jobs are.  As house prices rise, this effect should dissipate and could portend a rapid drop in unemployment. Which also means that margins are going to be under pressure for the home builders if they cannot pass the higher labor costs onto home buyers.  Food for thought as the XHB bounds to post-crisis highs.