Morning Report. Volcker: "There's a lot of liquor out there now"

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change	Percent
S&P Futures	1531.2	5.5	0.36%
Eurostoxx Index	2659.6	39.8	1.52%
Oil (WTI)	90.65	0.5	0.59%
LIBOR	0.281	-0.002	-0.71%
US Dollar Index (DXY)	82.08	-0.115	-0.14%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.89%	0.02%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index	195	0.2

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. China re-affirmed its growth target of 7.5% GDP. European ministers opened the way for looser budget policies after the Italian election results. In spite of that, Euro sovereigns are generally stronger this morning. Generally, the market has a "risk on" feel to it, and bonds / MBS are lower.

Acting FHFA Chairman Ed Demarco laid out the plan for dealing with the GSEs. Fannie and Fred would be merged, slowly dissolved and a new entity would take their place. The new entity would be owned and funded by Fan and Fred, but would have its own CEO and Chairman and be in a physically separate location. Left undecided is exactly what role the government will have in the mortgage market. The government seems to be leaning in the direction of focusing on low income / VA products, and acting as a re-insurer.  That said, it is up to Congress to figure out what the the exact role will be. The securitization arm could be nationalized, turned into a utility, or privatized.

The GSEs owe the government something like $120B and it is estimated that it would take another $200 - $250 billion to capitalize them enough so that they could stand on their own.  The government is in a pickle on this one. On one hand, if the government nationalizes Fan and Fred, all of their debt becomes sovereign debt, with the attendant effects on our debt / gdp ratios. On the other hand, there is no way to raise $350B in the private markets. And the chances of getting a $350B appropriation for the GSEs in this Congress is probably too much to ask as well.  Given that the government backs 90% of all new mortgages it is probably safe to say they won't make any major changes until private financing takes some of the load.

Ex Fed Chairman Paul Volcker is warning that removing the central bank stimulus will be difficult and the temptation will be to stay too long.  "You can make a mistake and go too quick, but the much more frequent mistake is you go too slow, because its never popular to take the so-called punch bowl away or to weaken the liquor." Of course after the equity bubble burst, the Fed kept the punch bowl out so long that the real estate market went on a 5 year bender and then wrapped the car around a tree. Almost on cue, Janet Yellen, as the good co-dependent / enabling wife, is out there saying that the "potential costs of asset purchases definitely need to be monitored over time and she did not see any that would cause me to advocate a curtailment." Meanwhile, the stock market is approaching all-time highs, the VIX is at 14, and S&P 500 earnings have been dropping every quarter since Q212...