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Friday, January 31, 2014

Morning Report - Fannie and Fred will continue the status quo for a while

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1761.9 -19.3 -1.08%
Eurostoxx Index 2974.7 -52.6 -1.74%
Oil (WTI) 97.39 -0.8 -0.86%
LIBOR 0.237 -0.001 -0.42%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.23 0.140 0.17%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.65% -0.04%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.7 0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.31

They're beating the tape with the ugly stick as emerging markets continue to get clobbered. Bonds and MBS are rallying, with the 10 year trading at 2.65%. 

We had some mixed earnings reports, with good news out of Google, a miss out of Mastercard, and a warning from Wal Mart.

Personal income came in flat in December (versus a .2% forecast), while personal spending rose .4%. The savings rate dipped to 3.9%. As I have said before - this is how recessions end. Spending increases and then wages increase. The PCE deflator came in in at 1.1%, showing inflation remains a non-problem. 

Squabbling among Senate Democrats probably means that nothing will get done about the GSEs this year. Left wing Democrats like Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown will refuse to back any plan to re-organize the GSEs unless it guarantees affordable loans for most buyers. This means they want whatever entity that replaces Fannie and Fred to be more than simply a re-insurer of privately insured mortgages - they want to continue the social engineering role of the GSEs. Not all Democrats are onboard with this idea, let alone Republicans who rightly view government activism as a contributor to the housing bubble. The left would be more than happy to continue the status quo, with Mel Watt (a CRA guy) running the show, which is why Obama has shown little interest in changing anything. 


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