A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Morning Report - Low construction hiring the new normal?

Vital Statistics:

S&P Futures  1841.6 7.3 0.40%
Eurostoxx Index 3168.0 14.8 0.47%
Oil (WTI) 94.59 0.2 0.23%
LIBOR 0.237 -0.001 -0.21%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.3 0.076 0.09%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.84% 0.02%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.3 -0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104 -0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.39

Markets are higher this morning on no real news. We won't have any economic data until Thursday. We also have a snowstorm targeting the Northeast today, so bond desks will probably start heading home early and tomorrow may be a thin day as people are snowed in. 

This week promises to be dull as there are no important economic data points and the FOMC meeting looms large next week. On Thursday, we will get existing home sales and the FHFA Home Price Index. 

The WSJ is predicting that next week's FOMC meeting will be full speed ahead on tapering.

Construction spending continues to increase, but construction hiring is lagging, according to CoreLogic. Is this a new normal? You can see from the chart below that construction spending and hiring used to correlate reasonably well, but they did not during the recovery. It is certainly possible that the reason for this is that construction firms still had excess capacity and were able to meet the new demand without workers. FWIW, virtually every publicly traded homebuilder has been saying that skilled construction labor is hard to find. Don't forget that we have underbuilt for 10 years and once household formation begins to recover we will need a lot of new construction. 



No comments:

Post a Comment