| S&P Futures | 1832.4 | -5.3 | -0.29% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 3107.0 | 2.8 | 0.09% |
| Oil (WTI) | 91.7 | -1.0 | -1.10% |
| LIBOR | 0.239 | -0.003 | -1.14% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 80.72 | 0.063 | 0.08% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.86% | 0.00% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 105.5 | 0.8 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 103.8 | 0.1 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 200.7 | -0.2 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.46 |
Stocks are down small this morning while bonds continue to hold onto Friday's gains. There is no important economic data this morning with the exception of the budget report sometime later on today.
The stock market seems to be taking Friday's jobs report as sort of a one-off, while bonds seem convinced that it signals something bigger. The most disappointing statistic in the report was the decline in the labor force participation rate to 62.8%, which means last month's rebound was just a blip. One worrisome stat - the biggest decline in the labor force participation rate came in the 45 - 55 year old cohort. In other words, people in their prime spending years. I personally know a lot of people who were rounding the final turn towards Candy Castle and then drew the candy cane card.
This week begins earnings season, with the big banks reporting. J.P Morgan and Wells report tomorrow, Bank of America is on Wed, Citi is Thursday, and Suntrust is Friday. I'm sure we will hear about all of the woes in the origination business. From what I am seeing, margins have to be terrible for them, and a combination of lower volume and lower margins is a toxic cocktail.
Tomorrow morning we will get retail sales, which will be an important data point, particularly for estimates of Q4 GDP. Later on this week we will get housing starts and building permits. It will be interesting to see whether November's 1.1 million print was a fluke or evidence of further strength in the housing market.
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