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Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Morning Report - Bank of America earnings

Vital Statistics:

S&P Futures  1836.2 3.3 0.18%
Eurostoxx Index 3140.1 20.6 0.66%
Oil (WTI) 93.01 0.4 0.45%
LIBOR 0.238 0.001 0.46%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.04 0.377 0.47%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.90% 0.03%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.7 -0.4
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.6 0.0
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.41

Markets are higher after a stronger after a strong earnings report out of Bank of America. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey came in stronger than expected, and the producer price index showed inflation is still muted at the wholesale level. Bonds and MBS are down small

Mortgage Applications increased 12% last week, although there is a holiday comparison in there so you can't read too much into it. Both the purchase and refi indices increased.

Bank of America reported originations declined 46% year over year to $13.5 billion.  Lock volume was down 37% from Q3. Their refi / purchase percents were 68 / 32. Headcount declined 14%. The stock is up half a buck pre-open. So we have seen big sequential drops in origination volume from the JP Morgan (down 38%), Wells (down 42%), and Bank of America (down 37%). For those keeping score at home, iSRL's volume was up 9.5% sequentially. Overall, it looks like the big banks are losing share to smaller rivals.

Looks like extended unemployment benefits remain a tough nut to crack. Democrats in the Senate want to extend unemployment without an offset, while Republicans want a "pay-for." Boehner is saying a deal without a "pay-for" and "job creation provisions" (read regulatory relief and probably something about Keystons) is DOA in the House. Democrats will continue to bang the inequality drum and push for a hike in the minimum wage and more Federal infrastructure spending.

How I learned to stop worrying and love the taper.


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