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Monday, February 3, 2014

Morning Report - spring selling season begins early

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1776.5 -0.1 -0.01%
Eurostoxx Index 3003.0 -11.0 -0.36%
Oil (WTI) 97.79 0.3 0.31%
LIBOR 0.236 -0.001 -0.42%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.22 -0.088 -0.11%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.67% 0.03%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106 -0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.7 -0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.26

Markets are flat this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.

In spite of all the snow falling in the Northeast, the spring selling season more or less begins now. Last week, we heard from PulteGroup and D.R. Horton who both observed that traffic patterns were unusually strong in January, indicating the spring selling season has begun early. Regarding interest rates, both companies said the shock from higher rates appears to have worn off and buyers realize the low rates of a year ago aren't coming back. Both companies target the first time homebuyer who still remains absent from the market, although the move-up buyer appears to be doing well. 

Why is the first time homebuyer struggling? Student loan debt and a lousy job market are considerations. Also they are competing with professional investors for starter homes who are buying them to rent.

The Census Bureau reported that the homeownership rate fell to 65.2% at the end of the fourth quarter. The big excesses of the bubble years have been worked off.


Nonvoting San Francisco Fed Head John Williams said that the issues in the emerging markets aren't changing the Fed's forecast for the U.S. economy and that the FOMC doesn't "focus too much on the short-term developments in the markets." Take that to mean that emerging markets sell-offs aren't going to affect Fed tapering, at least as long as credit availability remains unaffected.

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