A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Monday, February 24, 2014

Morning Report - upcoming earnings and data

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1838.0 3.7 0.20%
Eurostoxx Index 3137.6 6.0 0.19%
Oil (WTI) 102.5 0.3 0.29%
LIBOR 0.234 -0.001 -0.21%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.28 0.045 0.06%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.73% 0.00%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.5 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.2 0.0
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.35

Markets are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

This week contains some important economic data, starting with the real estate price indices Case Shiller and FHFA. Wednesday, we will get new home sales. Thursday we get durable goods orders, and Friday is the second revision to Q4 GDP. The Street is forecasting a big revision downward - the advance estimate of Q4 GDP came in at +3.2%; The forecast for the second estimate is 2.5%. 

This week contains a lot of earnings reports which are related to the real estate business. We will hear from big box home improvement retailers Lowe's and The Despot, Agency MBS REIT giant Annaly, luxury builder Toll Brothers, and servicing biggies Ocwen and Nationstar. It will be interesting to see if management of NSM or OCN weighs in on the latest hostilities out of Washington or steers clear. 

Ally (ex-GMAC) is planning to go public in March and hopefully give the government an exit from their position. The government owns 37% and is expected to be the only one selling. As of now, it seems like they are sticking with the auto loan business, but we'll see if they get back into resi lending. 

Good article on why the current housing weakness my be temporary.

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