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Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Morning Report - Economists are lifting their forecasts for GDP growth

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1835.2 0.2 0.01%
Eurostoxx Index 3115.1 -3.8 -0.12%
Oil (WTI) 101.4 1.1 1.09%
LIBOR 0.235 -0.001 -0.23%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.08 -0.053 -0.07%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.73% -0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.8 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.2 0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.33

Markets are flat coming off a 3 day weekend. Bonds and MBS are up small. The Empire Manufacturing Survey came in lower than expected. We also have a big merger in the pharma space with Forest Labs buying UK-based Actavis.

We should get the FOMC minutes this week, but judging by the way the market behaved after the FOMC decision, it should be a yawner. Plus, we just had Janet Yellen in front of Congress last week so I can't really imagine much coming out of the minutes that wasn't already addressed there.

This week will have some interesting housing-related data, but nothing much that should move markets or create rate volatility. We have inflation numbers this week, but the Fed isn't really concerned about inflation these days. On Thursday, we get housing starts and building permits, and on Friday existing home sales and leading economic indicators.

The Philly Fed has put out a projection of economic forecasts based on a survey of professional economists. 2014 GDP forecasts have been taken up from 2.6% to 2.8% and unemployment has been taken down from 7% to 6.5%. They are forecasting a 5.5% to 6% increase in home prices for 2014.

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