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Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Morning Report - Housing starts buried by snow

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1832.3 -5.1 -0.28%
Eurostoxx Index 3111.5 -6.0 -0.19%
Oil (WTI) 102.7 0.3 0.24%
LIBOR 0.234 -0.001 -0.41%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.08 0.067 0.08%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.68% -0.03%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.7 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.5 0.3
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.32

Stocks are lower this morning after a weak housing starts number. Bonds and MBS are benefiting from the riots in Ukraine. Mortgage applications fell 4% last week. Inflation at the wholesale level remains under control.

January housing starts came in at 880k, well below the 950k forecast. December was revised upward by 50k. Bad weather certainly played a part, and the low number would be consistent with the weak homebuilder sentiment number yesterday. 

Bad weather doesn't account for the entire drop in homebuilder sentiment - a shortage of lots, rising materials prices, and a dearth of skilled labor contribute to the problem. Many skilled construction workers left the industry after the collapse and went to work in the energy patch. Interesting fact: The average age of a mason in Texas is over 60. Apparently wages have increased 50%.

Later on today we will get the FOMC minutes. Don't expect anything market moving in there, but you never know. While the dovish tilt of the Chair remains in place, we picked up some more hawkish members. New voting member Charles Plosser is in favor of ending QE ASAP.

Servicers are coming under closer scrutiny. We saw NY State block a MSR deal between Wells and Ocwen. Consumer Advocates are criticizing servicers for not modding enough loans (as if more mods are more better). 


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