| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1567.7 | 4.5 | 0.29% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2630.1 | 35.0 | 1.35% |
| Oil (WTI) | 93.64 | -0.6 | -0.59% |
| LIBOR | 0.277 | -0.001 | -0.36% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 82.38 | 0.070 | 0.09% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.77% | 0.02% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 107.1 | 1.2 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 103.6 | -0.1 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 190.1 | 0.0 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.57 |
Stock markets are higher this morning in anticipation of the Fed minutes which will be released this morning at 9:00 am (a change from their usual 2:00 pm time). Market participants will focus on hints regarding the end of quantitative easing. Mortgage Applications rose 4.5% last week on the back of the BOJ-led rally in the bond market and MBS. Treasury will also be conducting a 10-year auction around 1:00 pm. It will be interesting to see if the bid / cover ratio is affected by events in Japan. Bonds and MBS are down small.
Earnings season kicked of on Tuesday with Alcoa reporting better than expected earnings, but weaker sales. Retailers Fastenal and Family Dollar are down this morning after missing. We will get JP Morgan and Wells Friday morning before the open.
The President plans to release a $3.77 trillion budget today. He is proposing $1.8 trillion in new spending (although to be fair, that is to replace the sequester). He is also instituting a AMT II on incomes over $1 million of 30%. He also proposes to cap IRAs at $3 million, end carried interest, and to raise taxes on tobacco. He will also propose changes to the way cost-of-living adjustments are calculated - aka Chained CPI - to Social Security. Given that taxes and spending both increase pretty dramatically, the plan is DOA in the house.
It turned out the Fed mistakenly released the minutes early. Still don't have the actual link, but here are some of the particulars: Economy re-accelerating after Q4 slowdown. Private nonfarm payroll increased at a modest rate in January, but expanded more briskly in Feb. (We now know that March was a disaster). The Fed asked primary dealers about their expectations for when the Fed will start tightening (are they running the Fed according to polls now?) and the view seems to be Q114 for the end of QE and Q315 for the first increase in the Fed Funds Rate. They noted that there did not seem to be much of a pullback in the economy in response to the tax hikes that kicked in Jan 1. Opinions about QE were all over the place, with some wanting to end it now and others wanting to increase the pace of purchases.
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