A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Morning Report - Housing starts break the 1 million barrier


Vital Statistics:


LastChangePercent
S&P Futures 1560.1+17.6+1.1%
Eurostoxx Index2609.3-15.0-0.61%
Oil (WTI)82.17-.84-0.78%
LIBOR0.2780.0010.18%
US Dollar Index (DXY)82.45-0.302-0.25%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield1.71%+0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA106.10.2
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA104.06-0.3
RPX Composite Real Estate Index190.426-0.4
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage3.51


Markets are bouncing back after yesterday's rout. The indices were already weak before the bombings in Boston, so the selloff was not terror-related. Gold is bouncing back after getting absolutely pounded the last two days. Gold closed Thursday at $1565 an ounce and closed yesterday at $1361. Someone is getting carried out on right now. Bonds and MBS are taking a breather after the risk-off trades of the last few days.

In economic data this morning, the consumer price index fell in March by .2%. This has been due to falling gasoline prices. Ex food and energy, it rose .1%.  Still well below the Fed's target inflation rate of 2%. 

Housing starts broke the 1 million barrier for the first time since the bubble burst. March housing starts came in at 1.036 million, well above the Street expectations of 930k. February was revised upward to 968k. Building permits were lower than expected at 902k, which may explain why the homebuilder ETF is only up small this morning.

Moody's Chief economist Mark Zandi has been rumored to be the next head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Zandi has been an outspoken supporter of principal modifications, which the current acting FHFA head Ed DeMarco has resisted. If DeMarco gets the boot, it will undoubtedly excite many on the Left, particularly Dr. Cowbell, who has been calling for DeMarco's head for a while now. The politics of this is difficult - the prospect of mass principal cramdowns was the inspiration of Rick Santelli's rant on the Floor of the Chicago Board of Trade which has been credited with launching the tea party. How will the the government prevent a stampede of strategic defaults?  Your guess is as good as mine. I guess this is Zandi's reward for cheerleading mediocre economic data during the campaign. He may come to regret it.

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