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Thursday, April 11, 2013

Morning Report - FHA needs a bailout

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1583.0 0.3 0.02%
Eurostoxx Index 2664.1 2.5 0.09%
Oil (WTI) 94.28 -0.4 -0.38%
LIBOR 0.277 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.15 -0.387 -0.47%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.79% -0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.4 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.7 0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 190.8 0.5
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.56

Markets are flattish this morning after initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at 346k. They dropped 42k from last week, which spiked due to a seasonal adjustment related to the Easter holiday. Import prices fell half a percent on lower energy costs.Bonds and MBS are up.

Ever since the Bank of Japan announced its quantitative easing program, the market has been speculating that Japanese investors would enter the US market en masse and purchase Treasuries. There has been plenty of anecdotal evidence, but no real numbers to work with. Yesterday's 10 year auction didn't provide any either - the bid to cover ratio was 1.8 which was a little light.

FHA might need a little more money from the government. They have $30 billion of cash on hand and insure $1.1 trillion in loans. The Administration is projecting they might need another billion. It looks like it was the reverse-mortgage business that hammered them.

One of the interesting things about the latest FOMC minutes is that the dispersion of opinion regarding the future of QE appears to be widening. Some wanted to end QE now, while others not only want to continue it, they want to increase it. Nonvoting hawk Charles Plosser said the Fed would be wise to begin unwinding its balance sheet now.

SIFMA lays into Obama's proposed 2014 budget. It sounds like ETF investors could be in for a nasty surprise. They support the Administration's proposal to create bonds for financing infrastructure spending, but pretty much pan everything else. The proposal is loaded with new taxes on capital Suffice it to say, if you are an investor, the administration is gunning for you.

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