A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Monday, April 1, 2013

Morning Report - Return of the Wealth Effect

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1562.4 -0.3 -0.02%
Eurostoxx Index 2624.0 11.6 0.44%
Oil (WTI) 96.53 -0.7 -0.72%
LIBOR 0.283 -0.001 -0.35%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.94 -0.032 -0.04%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.88% 0.03%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.4 -0.2  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103 -0.2  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 190.5 -0.3  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.67    

Markets are flat this morning as most European markets are closed for the Easter Holiday. We are kind on a lull period until next Monday when Alcoa kicks off earnings season. Bonds and MBS are down small.

The Markit U.S. Preliminary March Purchasing Managers Index rose to 54.9 from 54.3 in February, indicating that the economy is expanding at a faster rate.  Most indicators (new orders, employment, backlog) indicated the economy was expanding and accelerating. The Markit PMI is different than the more widely followed Institute of Supply Management Survey, which uses different weightings.

NPR has a good backgrounder on how strength in housing feeds other sectors of the economy. Punch line:  the wealth effect, which was given up for dead in 2008 has returned. As home equity grows, people start spending again.

The Feds are getting closer to Stevie Cohen. They have arrested Micheal Steinberg, one of Cohen's senior lieutenants, who was implicated in insider trading in Nvidia and Dell.

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