A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Monday, April 22, 2013

Morning Report - Bull Market psychology is back

Vital Statistics:
Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1553.5 5.9 0.38%
Eurostoxx Index 2595.5 20.4 0.79%
Oil (WTI) 88.6 0.6 0.67%
LIBOR 0.275 -0.001 -0.36%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.78 0.066 0.08%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.72% 0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.9 -0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.2 0.0
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 191 0.5
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.51

Markets are higher this morning after good earnings from Halliburton and a miss by Caterpillar. CAT's miss was mainly due to a mining slowdown. Bonds and MBS are down small.

Earnings season really begins in earnest this week with heavyweights like Apple and Google reporting. On the real estate front, we will get NVR today, Pennymac tomorrow, ARM Agency REITS Capstead and Hatteras on Wed, Pulte on Thursday and D.R. Horton on Friday. It will be interesting to see what the pipeline looks like for the homebuilders, as the housing starts number last week indicated single family residences were falling while multi-fam was rising.

The week ahead is relatively data-light, although we have the FHFA House Price Index on Tuesday. The FHFA House Price index covers homes with conforming mortgages, so it tends to be more of a central tendency index which strips out the noise of distressed sales / cash-only buyers, and the valuation extremes. CA prices supposedly rose 8.3% in March, supposedly. And no, that number is not annualized. On Friday, we will get the first estimate of Q1 GDP. The street is forecasting a 3.1% rise after a weak Q4.

Americans are starting to pick up on the increase in real estate prices, as 51% think that prices will increase and 34% predict prices will stay the same. The West is the most bullish, and the Midwest is the least. About 1/3 of the respondents are underwater.


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