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Monday, April 29, 2013

Morning Report - Personal Spending increases .2%

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1581.5 5.0 0.32%
Eurostoxx Index 2697.4 13.9 0.52%
Oil (WTI) 93.36 0.4 0.39%
LIBOR 0.274 -0.002 -0.54%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.12 -0.387 -0.47%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.65% -0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.3 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.6 0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 191 0.5
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.43

Markets are higher this morning after better-than-expected consumer spending data. Personal Income data was lower than expected. Bonds and MBS are up small

Personal Spending was projected to be flat, but actually rose .2%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is claiming that it was primarily due to weather - a cooler than normal spring brought higher utility spending. Personal Income was forecast to rise .4%, and ended up at .2%. The PCE deflator showed inflation remains subdued.

Pending Home Sales increased 1.5% in March, according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists had forecast a 1% increase. Pending home sales are up 5.8% year-over-year.

Lender Processing Services reported that home prices increased 1% in February and rose 7.3% year-over-year. The West is experiencing the biggest gains, while the Northeast and Mid Atlantic continue to languish. This has been borne out by the earnings reports of the homebuilders as well - the ones primarily focused on California have knocked the cover off the ball, while those with an East-Coast / Midwest focus have reported gains, but nowhere near what the West Coast builders are reporting.


Lots of data this week, but the big driver will be the FOMC meeting. We will get the rate announcement on Wed. Investors will be looking for information concerning the end of QE. We will get the jobs report on Friday, which will have the biggest potential to move interest rates.

Lots of homebuilders reported earnings last week - pretty much everyone except NVR beat estimates. Anyone with exposure to the West Coast did well and backlog is up nicely at all of the builders. We will hear from Standard Pacific and Beazer Homes this week. The Homebuilder ETF (XHB) is on a tear and sitting right at resistance.

U.S. News and World Report has a good piece on the state of the first time homebuyer.

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