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Monday, December 3, 2012

Morning Report "Gs" and "Js" edition.

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1420.8 6.4 0.45%
Eurostoxx Index 2603.5 28.2 1.10%
Oil (WTI) 89.54 0.6 0.71%
LIBOR 0.311 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.87 -0.288 -0.36%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.64% 0.03%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 191.1 0.0

Markets are higher this morning after a better than expected PMI report out of China and Europeans took steps to solve their crisis there.  We will get the November ISM report and Construction Spending at 10:00 am. Bonds are down a point, while MBS are down a few ticks.

Talks on the fiscal cliff seem to be at a stalemate.  Both sides are digging in their heels and making their respective cases on the Sunday morning talk shows. Given that we have seen this movie before in the debt ceiling and the last time we approached the cliff, the markets are taking a sanguine view.  Two economists sum up the left / right views pretty well this morning:  Sameulson vs Krugman.

Has the G-fee become the new Social Security Trust Fund - in other words, the piggybank government uses to fund items unrelated to housing?  It would appear so.  They were used in the debt ceiling deal a couple of years ago, and are now being used to pay for visas for highly skilled immigrants. Never mind that the G-fee is   more or less an insurance policy payment used to compensate the GSEs for credit risk. Maybe the "G" in G-fee should be changed from "guarantee" to "general"

The Fed is contemplating another round of asset purchases as Operation Twist ends this year. While Minneapolis President Kocherlakota believes "monetary policy if anything is too tight," Philly Fed President Charles Plosser warns that additional stimulus may not have the capability to affect employment rates and risks the possibility that the "US turns into a Japanese experience where we have extremely weak modest growth over a long period of time."  It is refreshing to hear someone invoke the "J" word - Japan - which should be the elephant in the room, both in Washington and at the Fed.

Check out our latest article in the Scotsman Guide:  Where are we going, Where have we been?

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