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Friday, December 28, 2012

Morning Report - On the Waterfront Edition

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1401.8 -8.9 -0.63%
Eurostoxx Index 2633.2 -26.8 -1.01%
Oil (WTI) 91.01 0.1 0.15%
LIBOR 0.308 -0.003 -0.96%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.81 0.188 0.24%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.70% -0.03%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 192.3 0.0  

Stock index futures are lower on pessimism about a budget deal. Obama will meet with Congressional leaders today to see if they can hammer out a deal. The House will meet on Sunday night. The same story remains - stocks are worried about going over the cliff, while the bond market seems skeptical.  For a laugh, check out Rick Santelli's rant about the way the markets are handicapping it.

One other possible headwind for the economy in Q1 - a longshoreman's strike that would close cargo ports on the Eastern Seaboard and the Gulf Coast. This would not only limit raw material supplies to US factories, it would also push many logistics workers, truck drivers, etc on to the unemployment rolls. Some economists estimate that a strike could cost the US economy $1 billion a day. Will Obama risk alienating his labor base to intervene?  Fun fact:  the average compensation for a longshoreman in $124k.

Yesterday's consumer confidence numbers took a step downward, and seem to back up reports that this year's holiday sales were weak.The outlook for business conditions and labor markets fell.

Chart:  Conference Board Consumer Confidence:


In spite of the pessimism over the fiscal cliff, luxury homes priced over $1 million are making a comeback. Sales have risen by 9% for the first 9 months of 2012.  Strong foreign demand has been driving up prices in Manhattan and the Hamptons. In terms of foreclosures over $1 million, the NYC suburbs hold 4 out of the top 10 zip codes, with New Canaan taking the lead.  This is still the wreckage from the bust, where lots of $1 million a year guys lost their jobs in 2007 and haven't worked since.




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