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Friday, December 21, 2012

Morning Report - Over the cliff we go

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1418.4 -22.2 -1.54%
Eurostoxx Index 2645.3 -13.0 -0.49%
Oil (WTI) 89.04 -1.1 -1.21%
LIBOR 0.31 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.38 0.116 0.15%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.75% -0.04%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 191.8 -0.1  

Stock index futures are getting crushed this morning after House Speaker John Boehner postponed a vote for Plan B, which would have raised taxes on millionaires, after he couldn't get enough Republican votes.  He has scheduled a press conference for 10:00 am. This is probably the final nail in the coffin for a deal before the end of the year.  It also could mean Speaker Cantor.

So, what are the options now on the fiscal cliff?  John Boehner could continue to work with the President on a deal that can garner bipartisan support in the House.  Second, the House could pass the Senate bill, with Republicans voting "present." Finally (and probably the most likely outcome) is that we go over the cliff and immediately pass tax cuts in the new year. It goes without saying that all of this is dependent on the world not ending today.

On the economic data front, Personal Income and Spending came in better than expected.  Durable Goods were higher than expected and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index rebounded. Of course none of that matters right now. Bonds are up a point, while MBS are up 1/4. In view of what is happening in Washington, I wouldn't want to be short bonds right now.

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