A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Morning Report: Merger mania on Wall Street

Vital Statistics:
Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1430.2 -2.9 -0.20%
Eurostoxx Index 2654.9 0.2 0.01%
Oil (WTI) 89.7 -0.3 -0.31%
LIBOR 0.31 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.12 -0.145 -0.18%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.78% -0.03%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 191.8 -0.1

Markets are slightly lower after a slew of economic data this morning.  3Q GDP was revised upward to 3.1%.  Initial Jobless Claims came in at 361k. Consumption rose 1.6%.  The November Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell .2%.  Bonds and MBS are flat.

The FHFA House Price Index rose a half of a percent in October.  Sep was revised downward.  Prices are up 5.6% YOY and the index is 15.7% below its peak in April 2007.  We are more or less back to Summer of 2004 levels.



The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has agreed to buy NYSE Euronext for $8.2 billion.  It shows just how much the importance of trading equities has fallen.  Who would have thought a 12 year old scrappy upstart from Atlanta would end up buying the New York Stock Exchange, Paris Bourse, and the Amsterdam Exchange?  The floor of the New York Stock Exchange is more or less just a museum these days.  Separately, Knight Capital Group, the Nasdaq market-maker which lost $460 million on a computer glitch earlier this year, agreed to a deal with Getco, the Chicago-based leader in high frequency trading.

On the fiscal cliff front, the House plans to vote on a measure that increases taxes on millionaires.  Obama has already threatened to veto it. The current bid / ask spread is 400 - 1000, meaning that Obama wants the threshold for higher taxes to start at 400k, while Boehner wants it to start at 1 million. Bloomberg has a good backgrounder on the relationship between Obama and Boehner.

KB Home announced their 4th quarter and full year earnings this morning.  Deliveries were up 6% and average selling prices increased 10% sequentially and 23% year-over-year. Backlog is up 35% and that potential revenue would be the highest since Q407. Larger homes were the driver, which accounts for the jump in ASPs.

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