A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Friday, November 30, 2012

Morning Report - Shadow Inventory and the Fiscal Cliff

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1416.0 0.3 0.02%
Eurostoxx Index 2588.6 6.9 0.27%
Oil (WTI) 87.84 -0.2 -0.26%
LIBOR 0.311 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.26 0.055 0.07%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.60% -0.01%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 191 -0.2

Markets are flattish on a morning with no major news. For the time being, the stock market will react to every new development in the talks. The S&P dropped 7 points yesterday after Boehner came out and cited no progress on the talks.  Expect a bumpy ride in the stock market until we reach some sort of resolution.  In economic news, Personal income was flat in October and Personal Spending was down .2%.  Both numbers  were lower than forecast, and were probably affected by Hurricane Sandy.

Obama's opening demand on the fiscal cliff is basically:  new spending, and $1.6 trillion in new taxes.  McConnell apparently laughed in Geithner's face when he presented it. So basically here is the bid / ask:  Higher tax rates and lower deductions on the rich, and increased spending vs the Romney Tax Plan. In other words, zero at par.

Business Week has a piece on the shadow inventory.  They make a point I have been making that the shadow inventory is getting picked over. They fear that once this glut of houses in disrepair hit the market, they will depress pricing.  My point is that they are already on the market, basically going for almost nothing. Just for fun, I looked at some place on Zillow.  There are over 2,200 homes in Detroit for $15,000 or lower.  177 in Toledo, OH. 118 in Stockton, 31 in Harrisburg.  How are you going to depress these markets further?  How many will ever sell?  The only thing left is to write them down to zero (which probably has already happened) and move on.


No comments:

Post a Comment