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Friday, November 16, 2012

Morning Report: Bye Bye Twinkies

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1354.8 3.5 0.26%
Eurostoxx Index 2457.6 -4.1 -0.17%
Oil (WTI) 86.49 1.0 1.22%
LIBOR 0.312 0.001 0.16%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.19 0.114 0.14%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.59% 0.00%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 191.4 -0.4

Markets are slightly higher this morning on no real news. The Gap and Foot Locker reported better than expected earnings. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization both fell and were below expectations.  Those are warning flags. Bonds are down a few points and MBS are up.

The WSJ is reporting that the White House is in talks to replace the sequester with a smaller package of spending cuts and tax increases.  They are looking at cutting spending by $100 billion next year. This would take the pressure off and allow a more comprehensive deal in mid 2013.

FHA is almost broke.  They are hoping that an improving housing market and pending changes in its reserve fund will help it weather the storm without needing additional taxpayer funds.  I wouldn't rule out an increase in the G-fee at some point.

Bye-bye Twinkies, Ding Dongs and Ho Ho's.  Hostess has decided to liquidate instead of re-organize after a strike crippled operations.  18,500 workers will be let go.

The banking system continues to hemmorage jobs.  Over 160,000 in the last two years, and the fire / hire ratio is around 2.0.  I keep thinking that Wall Street tends to over-hire and over-fire, but they have been over-firing for years now.  As we have noted, there are capacity constraints.  Anecdotally, I have heard of one large bank that is refusing to take new customers on the trading side.

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