A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:


Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1366.0 3.3 0.24%
Eurostoxx Index 2262.5 17.6 0.79%
Oil (WTI) 103.5 0.4 0.36%
LIBOR 0.466 0.000 0.04%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.32 -0.104 -0.13%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.95% 0.02%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 173.8 0.4


World equity markets are recovering slightly after yesterday's sell-off on the back of a couple of good bond sales out of Spain and the Netherlands. The Netherlands is another potential worry spot, as Prime Minister Rutte's ruling coalition collapsed over austerity disagreements. Bonds and MBS are down slightly.

The S&P / Case-Schiller index fell to new post-bubble lows, with the index dropping 3.5% YOY. Five of the 20 MSAs showed increases - Detroit, Denver, Miami, Minneapolis, and Phoenix. Remember, Case-Schiller is a very lagged index, as the number reflects the market in December '11 - February '12. We are seeing the correlation between different MSAs break down, which should be good news for the homebuilders. Overall punch line of the report: Prices are still falling, albeit at a slower rate.

Shelia Bair warns of a bond bubble in the US. She raises an interesting question - Are we Europe?  Or Japan? She thinks we are Europe. I think we are Japan, personally.

United Technologies, 3M, and AT&T all reported better than expected earnings. Former highflyer Netflix is down 15% on future growth worries despite a better than expected quarter. Apple reports after the close.

Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors weighs in on the future of Fan and Fred. Punch line:  Privatizing Fan and Fred in the 1970s created an untenable situation, where management took risks to maximize shareholder return with an implicit government backstop. This was an untenable situation, and almost guaranteed to end badly. It did. The question is what to do now. If you fully privatize Fan and Fred, you can expect volatility in mortgage rates and occasional market freezes. Say goodbye to the low-cost 30 year fixed rate mortgage, a uniquely American product that we almost consider our birthright. Pre-privatization, Fan and Fred performed a boring job very well. Perhaps it is time to make it official and fully nationalize them.

Chart:  S&P / Case-Schiller 20-city index:


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