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Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:
Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1367.0 9.9 0.73%
Eurostoxx Index 2353.9 32.4 1.39%
Oil (WTI) 101.25 0.2 0.23%
LIBOR 0.4687 -0.001 -0.11%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.641 -0.219 -0.27%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.03% 0.04%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 170.77 0.2

Equity markets are firmer as the sell-off takes a breather and investors digest Alcoa's numbers. Spanish yields are lower as well. Italy sold 11 billion euros of T-bills at 2.84% vs 1.405% a month ago. Bonds are a touch weaker and MBS are flat. Mortgage applications were down 2.4% last week.

As Spain becomes the latest worry, the natural question becomes "Who holds the old maid?" Not the Japanese, who cut their exposures to all but the highest Euro credit last year.

The CFPB has put out proposed rules for servicers aimed at improving transparency and accountability. Certainly the tone of the piece (putting "service" back into servicing and "preventing runarounds") suggests the government is going to regulate servicers more closely, and partially explains why you can't give away MSRs these days.

Everyone is trying to read the tea leaves on Acting FHFA Director Ed DeMarco's comments regarding principal forgiveness for conforming loans. Some saw a change in tone. Others did not. The problem with principal forgiveness is that someone has to eat the losses. There certainly does not appear to be the political appetite to pass losses on underwater homes to taxpayers, and members of Congress realize their state pension funds (not to mention their own!) would get slammed if the losses were passed to them. Neither option is particularly appetizing to politicians on either side of the aisle. So, Ed DeMarco remains a very convenient guy in Washington, allowing the Left to fulminate over his obstinate refusal to budge on principal reductions, safe in the knowledge that they won't have to face the consequences of what they advocate.

Are lenders moving back out on the risk curve? Seems like it, at least as far as credit cards and auto loans are concerned. Aside from a few hard money lenders, we aren't seeing this in the mortgage business yet, as it remains impossible to securitize this sort of paper.

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