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Friday, April 13, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:
Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1377.7 -8.2 -0.59%
Eurostoxx Index 2316.8 -35.4 -1.51%
Oil (WTI) 103.1 -0.5 -0.49%
LIBOR 0.466 -0.001 -0.11%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.53 0.249 0.31%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.01% -0.04%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 171.3 0.3

Markets are weaker this morning after a disappointing GDP report out of China. The Consumer Price Index showed prices increasing 2.7%, which was more or less in line with expectations. Stocks and bonds didn't react much to the data. Google, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo all reported better than expected earnings and are flat to slightly down pre-market.

JP Morgan reported better than expected earnings this morning. The highlight has been the mortgage origination which contributed $1.6 billion in revenue, an increase of 80% from Q111. Servicing revenue dropped 5% and the entire activity broke even. A Bloomberg story on Morgan's earnings cites a Friedman Billings analyst who thinks Q2 will be the best quarter for the mortgage business in a long time.

Christine Lagarde (head of the IMF) urged the US government to pursue a policy of principal reduction in mortgage debt. As I have discussed in prior posts, that probably isn't going to happen, at least with respect to conforming loans. Still, I don't rule out some sort of mortgage relief given that this is an election year.

Google is trying a new wrinkle in corporate governance. As part of their earnings release last night, they announced a stock split. Sort of. Google has two classes of shares - the supervoting shares held by the founders, and the reduced vote shares that currently trade. They are introducing a third share which will be nonvoting. Google shareholders will get as a dividend 1 share of nonvoting stock. The new stock will be used for employee equity-based compensation and other corporate uses, which means Google can issue stock without diluting Sergey and Larry's control over the company.

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