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Monday, April 23, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1360.7 -14.5 -1.05%
Eurostoxx Index 2254.9 -56.4 -2.44%
Oil (WTI) 102.8 -1.1 -1.07%
LIBOR 0.466 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.52 0.321 0.41%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.92% -0.04%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 173.4 0.5


Kind of a soggy tape this morning to go along with our soggy weekend in the Northeast. Political woes in Europe seem to be the main culprit. A split in the Netherlands over austerity measures is causing Dutch credit default swaps to richen. Purchasing Manager Indices in France, Germany, and the Netherlands all came in below expectations. While there have been some worries over Spanish banks, EURIBOR / OIS (a measure of stress in the banking system) is still falling after peaking in early December. So at least one indicator is telling us these fears are overblown.

In the US, stock index futures are down about a percent and bonds are stronger. Bonds have had a remarkable turnaround in the last month, as the 10-year bond futures broke down and fell out of their range in mid-March, only to rally again on euro fears. The contract is now challenging resistance at 144. Incredible turnaround. MBS are up small.

In US earnings, Chevron and Kellogg both disappointed. So far, earnings have been strong overall. Homebuilder DR Horton reported better than expected sales, the question will be whether this was weather-related.

Merger Monday is back, with a couple big deals in the pharma space and a couple of old British titans - Vodafone and Cable and Wireless - are partying like it is 1999.

Speaking of Prince's apocalyptic party song, a venerable investment bank from that era is re-launching. Smith Barney manager Frank Campanale is bringing back E.F. Hutton. Given that E.F. Hutton is a recognizable name and was not involved in the financial crisis, it makes some sense to resurrect it. One possible way to break up the big banks would be to have them spin out their non-commercial banking units - Citi could spin Smith Barney and Travelers, Chase and JP Morgan could split again, and you would basically re-establish the money center bank. Maybe the foreign banks could get involved, with Credit Suisse spinning out First Boston and DLJ, UBS spinning out PaineWebber, and Deutsche Bank spinning Bankers Trust.


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