Morning Report: Wholesale inflation remains muted

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P futures	2888.5	-0.25
Eurostoxx index	376.66	1.28
Oil (WTI)	70.21	0.93
10 year government bond yield		2.97%
30 year fixed rate mortgage		4.64%

Stocks are flat this morning as the East Coast braces for Hurricane Florence. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Mortgage Applications fell 1.8% during the Labor Day week as purchases increased 1% and refis fell 6%. The refi index is now at an 18 year low. We saw a 5 basis point increase in rates, which drove the drop in refis. As rates rise, cash-outs, fixed-for-ARM, and FHA for conventional are about the only game in town. 

Despite tariffs and increases in raw materials prices inflation at the wholesale level remains under control. The producer price index fell 0.1% last month but rose 2.8% on an annualized basis. Ex-food and energy, the number was down 0.1% MOM and up 2.3% YOY. So, despite the increase in wages we saw in the jobs report, inflation overall remains subdued. 

Yesterday's JOLTs report showed the quits rate (which is considered a leading indicator for wage inflation) hit the highest level since early 2001. Construction job openings increased to set another post-bubble high. Hurricane Florence will only exacerbate the labor shortage as workers get drawn into repair jobs. This probably means disappointing housing starts numbers for the rest of the year. 

Below is a chart which shows that average hourly earnings and the quits rate tend to correlate pretty closely.

Here are some things that homeowners in the path of Florence can do in order to prepare for impact. Note that the hurricane is expected to stall out once hit hits land, so you should expect some flooding inland. Servicers should prepare for an uptick in delinquencies. 

Redfin has a good retrospective on the top lasting impacts from the financial crisis. Probably the biggest surprise was that a leftist president presided over a huge jump in inequality. Given that Fed policy in the aftermath of the crisis was aimed at supporting asset prices, this shouldn't be a surprise. The other big surprise was the complete drop off in housing construction despite a tight housing market. 10 years down the road, it is still a head-scratcher. Everyone has a theory about the driver, from gun-shy builders, to labor shortages, to zoning restrictions. The places where the demand is greatest (CA and Seattle) have tight restrictions on building, and such an expensive market that businesses are relocating somewhere cheaper. On the other side of the coin, the Rust Belt is growing again, and that area has a surfeit of housing already built. 

Morning Report: Despite good labor news, more people worried about their jobs

Vital Statistics:

			Last	Change
S&P futures			2859	3.5
Eurostoxx index			389.41	-0.28
Oil (WTI)			67.29	0.35
10 Year Government Bond Yield				2.94%
30 Year fixed rate mortgage				4.58%

Stocks are higher this morning on decent earnings. Bonds and MBS are up.

Very slow news day. 

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 213,000 last week, an exceptionally low level. The 4 week average is sitting at 45 year lows. 

Inflation at the wholesale level was surprisingly weak in the first of two inflation readings this week. The Producer Price Index was flat MOM and rose 3.3% YOY. Ex-food and energy, it rose 0.1% MOM / 2.7% YOY. Tariffs explain some of it, but freight and packaging costs pushing prices higher too. 

Freddie Mac has extended mortgage forbearance measures due to the wildfires in California. Borrowers in FEMA-declared disaster areas may be allowed to suspend mortgage payments without penalty for up to a year. Fannie Mae is expected to do something similar. 

Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index fell in July for the second consecutive month as inventory and affordability issues weighed on homebuyer moods. The net number of respondents who think it is a good time to buy fell by 4 percentage points and the number who think it is a good time to sell fell by 6. Most respondents think mortgage rates and home prices will rise over the next year. One interesting data point: a big jump in the number of people who are worried about their job. The net number of people (% who are concerned less the % who are not concerned) fell by 11 percentage points. This certainly flies in the face of the data out there, and sentiment surveys are usually not very predictive, but it is a surprise. 

Morning Report: Mortgage credit availability eases

Vital Statistics:

			Last	Change
S&P futures			2792	4
Eurostoxx index			388.99	1.46
Oil (WTI)			65.94	-0.41
10 Year Government Bond Yield				2.96%
30 Year fixed rate mortgage				4.62%

Stocks are higher as we await the FOMC decision. Bonds and MBS are flat.

The FOMC decision is set to come out at 2:00 pm EST. Investors are going to probably focus most closely on the dot plot to get a sense of whether we get 1 or 2 more hikes this year. Generally speaking, the dot plots have been a bit more hawkish than the Fed Funds futures market.

Inflation appears to be picking up at the wholesale level (kind of echoes what we were seeing yesterday in the NFIB Small Business Optimism report). The Producer Price Index rose 0.5% MOM / 3.1% YOY, which was higher than expectations. Much of the pressure came from higher energy prices. Trade (which is a function of the dollar) was the other catalyst. Ex-food and energy, prices rose 0.1% MOM / 2.6% YOY. The Fed does pay attention to this number, however the PCE index is their preferred measure of inflation, and it is sitting close to their target.

Mortgage applications fell 2% last week. Both purchases and refis fell by the same amount.

Mortgage Credit Availability rose in May by 1.5% as a dwindling refi market is encouraging originators to widen the credit box. While the index has been steadily rising since 2011 when it was benchmarked it is nothing like the bubble, where credit was orders of magnitude tighter.

The business press warns that liquidity is going to dry up during the next crisis. While Dodd-Frank claims to allow market making (and not proprietary trading), there is no doubt that banks are going to be completely uninterested in sticking their necks out during the next sell-off. Even worse will be ETF investors who think an exchange traded fund gives them a liquidity risk "free lunch". (It isn't like I am investing in junk bonds - I am investing in an ETF that invests in junk bonds - its different!) When the underlying assets of that ETF go no-bid, so will the ETF.

Ever wonder why servicing values in states like NY, NJ, and CT are so low? The foreclosure process can stretch out for years. In this case, the occupants made their last payment in June 2010.

Speaking of the Northeast, all real estate is local as they say. While the West Coast sees sales close in weeks, luxury properties languish for years in the Northeast. The tony NYC suburb of New Canaan, CT has banned "for sale" signs, because there are too many of them (although the excuse is that people shop on line). There is definitely a bifurcation line in the NYC suburbs - below $750k you can move the property, above that good luck. And $1.5 million or more, forget about it.

From the NAHB: rental inflation is moderating. Meanwhile, home equity hits a new high.

Morning Report: Wholesale inflation still under control

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2779.5	6.8
Eurostoxx Index	376.9	1.4
Oil (WTI)	61.1	0.4
US dollar index	83.4	-0.1
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	2.84%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	102.375
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	102.75
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	4.43

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat as well.

Inflation at the wholesale level rose 0.2% MOM / 2.8% YOY. Ex-food and energy, they rose 0.2% MOM / 2.7% YOY. The core index (ex food, energy and trade services) rose 0.4% MOM / 2.7% YOY. Overall, the report came in a touch hotter than expectations, but nothing major. In terms of services, hotel demand drove the increase, while goods were impacted by lower energy prices. This report shouldn't have any effect on the Fed's decision next week. 

Retail Sales came in weaker than expected, and this is providing some support for bonds. The headline number was down 0.1%, while the control group was up 0.1%. Census has made some technical changes to the way it measures and calculates the index, so these numbers are going to contain a bit of noise. That said, people who were hoping that tax cuts would propel spending are disappointed this morning, however it might take a month or two to show up in the data. 

Not much of a reaction in the Fed Funds futures, with March futures handicapping a 89% chance of a 25 basis point hike, and the December futures coalescing around a total of 75 basis points this year. 

Mortgage Applications increased 0.9% last week as purchases rose 3% and refis fell 2%. The average contract rate rose 4 basis points to 4.69%, the highest level since January 2014. Refis comprised 40% of all mortgages, the lowest level in almost 10 years. The government share of mortgages increased. 

The leading candidate to replace Gary Cohn is Larry Kudlow, a free-trade, supply-side economist. A veteran of Wall Street and Washington, he recognizes that some saber rattling in trade issues can be a useful negotiating tactic. He also is a regular on TV, which is crucial for selling the Administration's policies to the public. Finally, he is well-liked in Washington, and while Democrats might not agree with him on policy, he doesn't strike a nerve with them. This will be helpful in navigating budgetary decisions. 

10 years ago, Bear Stearns collapsed, pretty much setting the stage for the financial crisis. The public didn't pay attention until Lehman went under. At the end of the day, Bear and Lehman were symptoms, not the disease. The disease was a burst residential real estate bubble. Keep that in mind as the business press will undoubtedly publish a bunch of "Are we at risk for another financial crisis?" articles this week. Residential real estate bubbles are the Hurricane Katrinas of banking, and when they burst, they take down the system with it. We do not have one at the present, and while there is evidence of excessive risk taking in some corners of the market (subprime auto, etc) it simply isn't big enough to dent the economy in a material way. 

Hard to believe, but true. Last night not a single Japanese government bond traded. Between the central bank vacuuming up the supply as a part of QE and Japanese pension funds buying and holding, there is almost no liquidity in the market. Makes the yield curve pretty easy to manipulate, though. Japan has always had a different attitude about markets - it thinks interest rates and stock prices are too important to be determined by a mere market - but it will be interesting to see how the economy gets out from under such determined government support. Ultimately, accurate, unmanipulated interest rates and asset prices are a necessary part of the plumbing for a functioning economy.

Morning Report: Goldman forecasting 3.5% on the 10 year this summer

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2707.0	10.3
Eurostoxx Index	377.0	2.5
Oil (WTI)	60.4	-0.2
US dollar index	82.9	-0.2
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	2.90%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.591
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	103.688
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	4.44

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Inflation at the wholesale level came in higher than expected as the Producer Price Index rose 0.4% MOM and 2.7% YOY. Ex-food and energy, the index was up 0.4% / 2.2% and the core rate was up 0.4% / 2.5%. The US dollar is weaker on the data, which adds to inflationary pressures. I suspect at some point dollar weakness will feed higher rates, but we aren't there yet. Treasuries look like they want to test the 3% level we reached after the taper tantrum. The 10 year yield hit 2.94% overnight, so we aren't all that far away. Goldman is forecasting 3.5% on the 10 year within the next 6 months on monetary tightening. Other strategists are raising their forecast for Fed tightenings as well, based on the additional stimulus of the budget deal and tax cuts. 

FWIW, after the inflation data, the Fed Funds futures are now predicting a 83% chance of a hike at the March meeting, and sentiment is coalescing for a total of 3 hikes this year, to take the Fed Funds rate to 2.0% - 2.25%. 

In other economic data, Initial Jobless Claims rose to 230k last week, while the Philly Fed rebounded to 25.8. The Empire State Manufacturing survey slipped. Industrial Production fell a tenth of a percent while Manufacturing Production was flat. Capacity Utilization fell 20 basis points to 77.5%. So, between the higher than expected inflation data and weaker manufacturing data, bonds are pretty much flattish. 

Donald Trumps proposed 2019 budget contemplated an 18% cut in HUD's budget, with the cuts largely coming from the end of the Community Development Block Grant program. At the end of the day, this budget is a messaging document and has 0% chance of becoming law as-is. 

Builder Sentiment was flat in February according to the NAHB. 

Morning Report: Bonds rally after a decent 10 year auction

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2754.3	3.8
Eurostoxx Index	397.0	-1.6
Oil (WTI)	63.9	0.3
US dollar index	85.6	-0.2
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	2.56%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	101.75
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	102.875
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	4.01

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

Inflation came in weaker than expected at the wholesale level, with the producer price index falling 0.1% MOM and increasing 2.6% YOY. The core index (which strips out food, energy, and trade services) rose 0.1% and is up 2.3% YOY. 

Bonds were trying to break through support yesterday, however a decent 10-year auction pushed rates lower. The 10 year yield dropped 2 basis points on the result and is holding those levels this morning after the weaker than expected PPI. The Chinese government said that yesterday's Bloomberg story of a potential slowdown or suspension of Treasury purchases could be fake news. 

Initial Jobless Claims rose to 261k in a holiday-shortened week. I would bet most of this is being driven by post-holiday retail layoffs. 

Wal-Mart is raising its starting wage to $11 an hour and handing out bonuses to employees. They are just the latest in a string of companies that announced raises and bonuses recently. We'll see if this moves the needle in the official wage inflation numbers out of BLS. It is interesting that most of the wage inflation seems to be occurring at the bottom end of the scale. 

Mortgage Credit Availability decreased in December, according to the MBA. Government programs (FHA/VA) especially at lower FICO and higher LTVs were the biggest decliners. Note that GNMA servicing values did get hit in 2017 as prepay speeds were generally higher than the benchmark TBAs were forecasting. That said, we saw a tightening of credit in all products, including jumbo. Despite the monthly drop, credit availability is still up substantially from a year ago. 

The Kansas City Fed is out with their housing outlook for 2018, and it predicts continued price increases as pent-up demand remains unsatisfied. Household formation remains below the benchmark forecast done in 2000 based on demographics. Part of this is a continuation of the decades-long trend of Americans marrying and having kids later than previous generations. Student loan debt is also a factor. That said, the shortfall is astounding - about 3.5 million households. That is almost 3 years' worth of housing starts at current levels! Housing starts would need to double to satisfy that demand. If we get 2 million plus housing starts, we are looking at the strongest growth since the 90s. Lack of workers, available land, and land use regulations remain the bottlenecks. 

Last year, the Fed paid $80 billion in profits to Treasury. Long-term rates fell slightly during the year and that number was lower than 2016. For those keeping score at home, that works out to be a 1.8% ROA, which is pretty punchy for a bank. The big question is what happens if rates move up faster than the Fed anticipates? 

The Trump Administration is reviewing the Community Reinvestment Act, to make compliance easier and more transparent. 

Morning Report: Stirrings of inflation at the wholesale level

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2666.3	1.8
Eurostoxx Index	390.4	1.4
Oil (WTI)	58.4	0.5
US dollar index	87.3	-0.1
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	2.39%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	102.531
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	103.591
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.88

Stocks are up this morning as we begin the FOMC meeting. Bonds and MBS are flat. 

Inflation at the wholesale level came in slightly above forecast according to the Producer Price Index. The headline number was 0.4% MOM and 3.1% YOY. Ex-food and energy, it rose 0.3% / 2.4% and ex-food, energy, and trade services it was up 0.4% / 2.4%. This report confirms building inflationary pressures in the system. It won't have an effect on this Fed meeting, but it is something to watch.

Speaking of inflation, one of the bigger complications for the Fed is the effect of Amazon on price discovery. Amazon (and the Internet in general) allow consumers to compare prices easily, something that was not possible a generation ago. Goldman tried to estimate the effect of the internet on core CPI, and they found it to be about 0.1%. All of the Fed's inflation models were conceived pre-internet. While price comparison on the web is not the only reason why inflation is low, it is a new factor. Deflation is generally experienced in the wake of asset bubbles - Japan has experienced it for a generation, the US had low inflation from the Depression that lasted until the 60s, and we have had persistently low inflation since the residential real estate bubble burst. Low productivity hasn't helped either, as productivity growth drives wage inflation. 

Small business optimism hit the highest level in 34 years on tax reform according to the NFIB. “We haven’t seen this kind of optimism in 34 years, and we’ve seen it only once in the 44 years that NFIB has been conducting this research,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan. “Small business owners are exuberant about the economy, and they are ready to lead the U.S. economy in a period of robust growth.” While small business didn't add any workers last month, hiring plans increased, and difficulties in finding workers remains a big problem. 

CoreLogic reported that delinquency rates in July were the lowest in a decade. The foreclosure inventory rate was 0.7%, down from 0.9% a year ago and is the lowest level since 2007. Delinquency rates are the lowest in the West, while New York has the highest. The Northeast judicial states like New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut still have a foreclosure inventory to work through. Lower oil prices were beginning to push up DQ rates in places like Alaska and Louisiana. 

Congress hopes to pass tax reform by Christmas. The bill is in committee right now, where the House and Senate are trying to reconcile their differences. 

Bitcoin mania: People are taking out mortgages to buy bitcoin. This will not end well. That said, can bitcoin double from here? Of course. Can it go to zero? Of course. 

Morning Report: Inflation is picking up

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2577.0	-5.0
Eurostoxx Index	384.4	-1.8
Oil (WTI)	56.5	-0.3
US dollar index	87.5	0.0
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	2.39%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	102.875
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	103.938
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.87

Stocks are lower on overseas weakness. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Inflation at the wholesale level picked up in October, according to the Producer Price Index. The headline number rose 0.4% MOM and 2.8% YOY on services inflation, which is being driven (hopefully) by increased compensation. The core rate was up 0.2% MOM and 2.3% YOY. 

Small business optimism picked up in October on strong labor readings. The average firm added .17 workers, while job openings stayed in record territory. In fact, the inability to find qualified workers was the second biggest headache for small business. As an aside, I wonder if this is an inability to find qualified workers, or an inability to find qualified workers who can pass a drug test. A net 27% of firms reported increasing compensation. 

People are spending money on their homes. The Despot reported strong Q3 earnings with comparable store sales up 7.9%, despite the hurricanes. I guess when inventory is as low as it is, people will remodel their current home instead of moving. 203ks anyone?

Loan delinquencies are falling, according to CoreLogic, however we are seeing a bump up in the oil patch states, especially around Houston and in Alaska. 30+ DQ rates fell 0.6% YOY to 4.6% in August. These were the lowest numbers in a decade, however the hurricanes will probably bump up those numbers in the next few readings. The number in foreclosure fell to 0.6% from 0.9% a year ago. 

The Senate came to an agreement to limit some of the post-crisis financial regulation for small and medium sized banks. The threshold for additional scrutiny was increased from $50 billion in assets to $250 billion in assets. Some larger banks who have a more traditional business like US Bancorp and PNC, were hoping for some relief, but didn't get any. “This is the first proposal that has a legitimate shot at making it to the president’s desk,” said Milan Dalal, an attorney at lobbying firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck in Washington and a former aide to Sen. Mark Warner (D., Va.), who backed Monday’s deal.

Morning Report: Confidence in the economy improved

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2171.8	-8.0
Eurostoxx Index	337.7	-2.0
Oil (WTI)	45.4	-0.4
US dollar index	90.6	0.2
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	2.27%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	4

Stocks are weaker this morning as commodities rally. Bonds and MBS are down.

Mortgage Applications fell 9% last week as purchases fell 6% and refis fell 11%. I'm actually surprised it wasn't worse, as the 10 year bond yield went from 1.78% to 2.14%. 

Inflation at the wholesale level remains low as the producer price index was flat for October. Ex-food and energy, they were down .2%. Ex food, energy and services the index was down .1% and is up 1.6% for the year. Certainly nothing to concern the Fed, however the Fed Funds futures are factoring in a 94% chance of a rate hike next month. At the beginning of the month, the odds were 68%. 

Donald Trump's transition team is already having power struggles, as Chris Christie loyalists were sent packing after VP Mike Pence replaced him as head of the transition team. Given that Trump was an outsider, his transition is going to be a lot more rocky than we are used to. 

It looks like Trump is considering famed value investor Wilbur Ross and ex-Goldman guy Steve Mnuchin to Treasury and Commerce. Apparently an announcement is imminent. 

Industrial Production was flat in October, while manufacturing production was up 0.2%. Capacity Utilization slipped to 75.3%. The strong dollar is going to be a headwind for the manufacturing sector, although its weight in the US economy is a lot smaller than it used to be. 

Confidence in the economy surged after the election according to Gallup. The improvement was largely partisan as Republicans became more bullish on the economy. 

Fast money poured into ETF last week on the election news. Large caps were bought while small caps were sold. Pharma and biotech saw big inflows, as well as tech, which would benefit the most from an overseas repatriation tax holiday.

Home prices rose 6.6% last month according to the FNC indices. 

Morning Report: Banks fail the living will test

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change	Percent
S&P Futures	2064.8	9.1	0.44%
Eurostoxx Index	3018.3	76.2	2.59%
Oil (WTI)	41.6	-0.6	-1.35%
LIBOR	0.63	-0.001	-0.15%
US Dollar Index (DXY)	94.54	0.581	0.62%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.78%	0.00%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	105.7
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	104.8
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.6

Markets are higher this morning after equities rallied overnight. Bonds and MBS are down on the "risk-on" trade. 

Mortgage applications increased 10% last week as purchases rose 8.4% and refis rose 11.3%. The average 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate fell from 3.86% to 3.82%. Refis dipped to 54.9% of all loans. 

Retail Sales fell 0.3% in March which was lower than expected. The control group, which excludes autos, gas and building products rose 0.1%, which again was lower than expected. January and February were revised higher, however. 

Inflation remains muted at the wholesale level, with the Producer Price Index falling 0.1% in March, again below estimates. On a year over year basis, the core rate is up 0.9%, well below the Fed's inflation target of 2%. 

Business inventories fell 0.1% in February, in line with expectations. January was revised downward as well. 

JP Morgan reported better than expected earnings this morning. Mortgage Banking revenues increased 7.3% YOY, and charge-offs fell. It appears that units fell while average loan sizes increased. 

Regulators have rejected the living wills submitted by 5 of the largest banks, which could ultimately force them to raise more capital and could subject them to being broken up. In spite of all of these TBTF banks, we do have the least concentrated banking system in the world. Most countries are dominated by 3 or 4 massive banks. 

Confirming everyone's suspicions, the government knew that Fannie and Fred were about to become profitable when they changed the rules and began to take everything the GSEs made. The government's cover story was that the two GSEs were too weak and therefore all profits needed to be swept to protect taxpayers. Fannie stock rallied from 1.33 to 2.05 on the news. 

Morning Report: Retail Sales miss

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change	Percent
S&P Futures	2037.7	-2.9	-0.14%
Eurostoxx Index	3354.2	-33.5	-0.99%
Oil (WTI)	41.36	-0.4	-0.93%
LIBOR	0.359	0.003	0.84%
US Dollar Index (DXY)	98.95	0.299	0.30%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	2.30%	-0.02%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.91

Stocks are lower this morning after some disappointing data and an earnings miss out of Cisco Systems. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Retail Sales rose 0.1% in October, missing estimates. The control group which strips out autos, gas and building supplies rose 0.2%, which was again below expectations. Retail sales are getting tougher to measure as more and more shopping goes on line. Many of the small online shops do not report their sales data to the government, so actual retail sales data is hard to come by. 

The Producer Price Index fell 0.4% in October, which was well below expectations again. Ex-food and energy, the index was up 0.1%. 

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey increased to 93.1 from 90. 

Low energy prices are a big driver of this disinflationary environment. They aren't going away as the International Energy Association says we have 3 billion barrels in storage, which is a record. And soon we will have Iran adding to the supply.

The third quarter was the best in nearly a decade, according to the NAR. Home prices increased in 87% of all MSAs. Existing home sales are up 8.3% YOY and prices are up 5.4%. Inventory remains tight. 

Citing market conditions, non-bank lender Loan Depot is postponing its IPO.