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Friday, March 27, 2015

Morning Report - Q4 GDP disappoints.

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2045.1 -3.4 -0.17%
Eurostoxx Index 3668.4 -1.4 -0.04%
Oil (WTI) 50.85 -0.6 -1.13%
LIBOR 0.269 -0.001 -0.30%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 97.28 -0.152 -0.16%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.98% -0.01%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 102.5 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 101.9 0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.82

Markets are lower this morning after the final revision to fourth quarter GDP came in lower than expected. Bonds and MBS are up. 

The final revision to fourth quarter GDP came in at 2.2%, flat with the second revision and below the 2.4% street estimate. Personal Consumption was revised upward to 4.4% from 4.2%. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (the preferred measure of inflation for the Fed) came in at 1.1%, well below their 2% target. 

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index rose to 93 in March.

At 1:30 Janet Yellen will be speaking in San Francisco about monetary policy. She probably won't say anything market-moving, but just be aware. 

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring. NY Senator Chuck Schumer is the favorite to replace him. NV will almost undoubtedly swing Republican. Schumer is generally financial sector friendly, so that should help the business, for what it is worth. Democrats are worrying about 2016 and the fact that their war on Wall Street means banks are pulling back campaign contributions. Also, affordable housing advocates are getting sick and tired of tight credit. 

Reinhart and Rogoff have another paper about high levels of government debt. It looks at how governments have handled these situations over the past two centuries. Governments will need to be creative in dealing with it, and the solutions will probably involve confiscatory taxes, default, and inflation. 


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