| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 2098.8 | 2.1 | 0.24% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 3580.6 | -10.5 | -0.29% |
| Oil (WTI) | 49.66 | 0.1 | 0.14% |
| LIBOR | 0.262 | 0.000 | 0.10% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 95.4 | -0.062 | -0.06% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.09% | 0.01% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 102.2 | -0.2 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 101.5 | 0.0 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.85 |
Stocks are higher this morning after the ECB committed to buy 60 billion euros worth of bonds starting Monday. Bonds and MBS are up small.
Nonfarm productivity fell 2.2% in the fourth quarter, as output increased 2.6% and hours worked increased 4.9%. On a year-over-year basis, it fell .1%. Lower productivity means that wage inflation will become inflationary sooner than it otherwise would. Not sure what is driving the decline.
Unit labor costs rose 4.1%, which was a function of a 1.9% increase in compensation and a 2.2% decline in productivity. Unit Labor Costs are up 2.6% over the last year.
Initial Jobless Claims rose to 320k, and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to 43.5.
Is China setting up for a 1929 moment? Certainly the backdrop is there. This seems to be par for the course, as countries that go through a long secular growth spurt end up having bubbles. It happened to the US in 1929, it happened to Japan in 1989, and it has happened to China. Their government wants to deflate the bubble, as all governments who face this do, however that is easier said than done. The fallout will be felt in the luxury real estate markets in the US and Canada. Think the Bay Area, San Diego, Washington DC, NYC, Vancouver, Seattle. Do the Chinese banks puke Treasuries or do they buy them as a flight to safety? That is the most interesting question.
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