Morning Report - No we are not in another housing bubble

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change	Percent
S&P Futures	2045.4	-8.4	-0.41%
Eurostoxx Index	3634.4	-49.6	-1.35%
Oil (WTI)	50.31	1.1	2.24%
LIBOR	0.269	0.003	0.96%
US Dollar Index (DXY)	96.69	-0.288	-0.30%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.95%	0.02%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	102.7	-0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	102	-0.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.82

Stocks are lower worldwide as the Saudis bomb Shiite rebels in Yemen and the semiconductor sector gets taken tot the woodshed. Bonds and MBS are down. The bombing in Yemen is putting a bid under oil.

In economic data this morning, initial jobless claims fell to 282,000 last week from 291,000. This is the lowest reading in 5 weeks. The Markit US Composite PMI rose to 58.5 in March, while the US Services PMI rose to 58.6. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort rose to 45.5 last week. 

It is looking like the Germanwings crash was a deliberate act. Note that the new security measures designed to keep bad guys out of the cockpit can also keep the good guys out if the bad guy is already inside. 

Senator Richard Shelby suggests that GSE reform probably isn't happening this year. And since the following year is an election year, you can probably forget about anything happening until 2016 at the earliest. 

In the "what passes for analysis" category, CNN wonders if we are in another bubble. Why? Because the Homebuilder ETF (XHB) is back at 2007 levels. Setting aside the idea that ETF valuations can somehow predict where real estate prices go, bubbles require a mindset on the part of buyers and bankers that the asset in question is "special" and cannot fall in value. We will never see another housing bubble in the US, but our grandkids may at some point. 

Ara Hovnanian weighs in on the housing market and the state of the first time homebuyer.