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Monday, March 9, 2015

Morning Report - mortgage credit continues to ease up

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2072.9 2.1 0.10%
Eurostoxx Index 3610.4 -7.3 -0.20%
Oil (WTI) 49.54 -0.1 -0.14%
LIBOR 0.265 0.001 0.38%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 97.59 -0.021 -0.02%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.20% -0.04%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 101.8 -0.6
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 100.9 0.3
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.94

Stocks and bonds are higher this morning after Friday's bloodbath. 

Global bonds are rallying as the European Central Bank begins purchasing German and Italian government debt. Not sure what difference taking the Bund yield from 40 basis points to 30 basis points is going to make, but there you go. I wonder what economics students will think of this episode in 30 years. Grandpa, tell me again about the time when central banks were willing to buy their host country's debt for dollars on the penny..

The week after the jobs report is typically very data-light, and this week is no different. The big events are retail sales on Thursday, and the JOLTS job openings on Tuesday. Which means bonds will probably be primarily influenced by events out of Europe. 

The Bankrate 30 year mortgage rate didn't move on Friday, but that is hard to believe given the big move up in rates. That said, mortgage rates have been lagging the moves in the bond markets.

Mortgage credit eased up in February, driven by jumbo and 97 LTV conventional. While we are at post-bust highs in credit availability, we are nowhere near where we were during the bubble, or even in the pre-bubble years. 

How much do you need to make in the US to buy a house? Good question for the first time homebuyer. The answer is around 48k. Of course all real estate is local, and you need to make 142k to buy a home in San Francisco. Of course you could style in Cleveland on 142k, as you only need 32k to buy a home there. 


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