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Monday, August 11, 2014

Morning Report - Is the labor market at a tipping point?

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1933.7 10.0 0.52%
Eurostoxx Index 3038.1 31.3 1.04%
Oil (WTI) 97.61 0.0 -0.04%
LIBOR 0.235 0.002 0.86%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.43 0.038 0.05%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.42% 0.00%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.4 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.4 0.0
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.25

Markets are higher this morning on easing international tensions. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Not a lot of economic data this week - the highlights will be industrial production and capacity utilization on Friday and retail sales on Wednesday. Earnings season is winding down, with mainly the retailers left.

Goldman Sachs looked at student loan debt and the Millennial generation to determine how much student loan debt inhibits home ownership. It looks like $50,000 worth of debt is the tipping point - young adults with more than that in debt have a homeownership rate that is estimated to be 8 percentage points lower than graduates with less than $50,000 in debt. The conclusion of the study is this: The benefits of a college degree outweigh the costs, provided the degree helps boost income, and the student loan debt is not too large.

Bloomberg has a good backgrounder on the changing dynamics of the labor market. The balance of power is shifting more towards employees from employers. The missing piece of the puzzle has been wage inflation, and we may finally be at that point. Separately, eHarmony, the dating site, is getting into the career business.

Confounded by the rally in bonds this year. You are not alone.

Ellie Mae is buying AllRegs for $30 million in cash.

Stonegate reported second quarter numbers last week. Originations grew 37% versus Q1 and were up 59% year-over-year. These are not "apples-to-apples" numbers are Stongate bought Medallian and Nationstar's wholesale business. Gain on sale margins increased 23 basis points. 

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