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Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Morning Report - Consumer Confidence continues to rise

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1997.0 2.1 0.11%
Eurostoxx Index 3175.9 10.4 0.33%
Oil (WTI) 93.69 0.3 0.36%
LIBOR 0.238 0.004 1.49%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.54 -0.008 -0.01%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.38% -0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.5 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.8 0.0
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.24

Rallies in European stocks and bonds are dragging US stocks and bonds along for the ride. Remember the PIIGS? The US 10 year yields just a touch less than Italian sovereign debt and about 20 basis points more than Spanish sovereign debt. Let that sink in.

Durable goods orders were all over the map due to a big jump in aircraft orders. The headline number increased 22.6%, however the number most pros focus on - Capital Goods Orders Non-defense / ex-aircraft was down .5%, however June was revised up big, from 1.4% to 5.4%.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 12 from 7. Consumer Confidence rose to 92.4 in August, from 90.3 the prior month. This is a post-recession high and we are approaching historical normalcy. Lets see if this translates into good personal spending numbers on Friday.



It is official: Burger King is buying Tim Horton's and plans to move its headquarters up north. Expect the usual kvetching about "corporate patriotism" out of the usual suspects. That said, Walgreens was jawboned into not moving their headquarters, but the stock was slammed on the decision. I am curious as to whether the left will go after the company by threatening a boycott or will go after Burger King Worldwide's biggest shareholders - 3G and Pershing Square. That said, 3G is a Brazilian investment firm, and who knows if Ackman holds BKW in its onshore or offshore accounts. BKW could already be more or less foreign owned to begin with. 

House prices are down month-over-month and year-over-year according to Case-Shiller. These are the seasonally-adjusted numbers - the non-seasonally adjusted numbers were still up .9% month over month.

Separately, home prices continue to rise, according to FHFA, with the index up .4% from May. Prices are up 5.1% year-over-year. The FHFA index is different than Case-Shiller in that it only looks at homes with a conforming mortgage, which means it excludes distressed and high end home. It is more of a central tendency index and tends to be less volatile than Case-Shiller.

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