A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Monday, December 30, 2013

Morning Report - rental cap rates falling

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1836.3 -0.2 -0.01%
Eurostoxx Index 3098.8 -12.6 -0.41%
Oil (WTI) 99.86 -0.5 -0.46%
LIBOR 0.247 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.12 -0.270 -0.34%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.98% -0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104 0.2
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.1 0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.56

Markets are flattish on the penultimate day of 2013. Bonds have bounced back below 3% in yield. The ISM Milwaukee came in better than expected, and we will also get pending home sales later.

Today is also Black Monday for losing NFL coaches. Leslie Frasier is gone, as is Rob Chudzinski. Are Shanny and Schwartz next?

CoreLogic's latest Market Pulse is out, and as usual it is full of good stuff. One thing they discuss is that cap rates are falling for rental markets as prices have increased. Which means that the bidding wars of professional cash buyers are probably over. As prices appreciate, expect to see the pros begin to ring the register. For originators, this means we can still have purchase apps increase as cash buyers drop from 40% of buyers back to their more typical 20% of buyers. 


The consensus is growing that 2014 will be the year the economy finally gets out of first gear. Job creation is back towards 200k a month, consumer confidence is rising, and 3Q GDP came in at +4.1%, though I wouldn't read too much into that number. Pent-up demand is finally becoming unleashed. One thing to watch: if extended unemployment benefits aren't renewed, we should see a drop in unemployment as people take part-time jobs to pay the bills. That won't necessarily be an indication of economic strength, but it may matter psychologically. 

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