A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Morning Report - Lowest mortgage apps since 2000

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1823.3 0.5 0.03%
Eurostoxx Index 3072.9 2.0 0.06%
Oil (WTI) 99.08 0.2 0.17%
LIBOR 0.247 0.001 0.41%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.52 0.069 0.09%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.95% 0.03%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.9 -0.3
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103 -0.3
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.49

Stocks are unch'd on this short trading day. Stocks and bonds close at 1:00 pm EST today. Bonds are down.

Mortgage Applications fell 6.3% last week, taking the index down to the lowest level since December 2000. Some of this is seasonal, as the spring selling season doesn't really kick off until just after the Superbowl. Purchases were down 3.5%, while refis were down 7.7%. 

Durable goods orders increased 3.5% in November, rebounding smartly from an upward-revised -.7% in October. The print came in higher than the Street +2% estimate. Demand for autos is increasing which isn't surprising as the average age of a car in the US is pushing 12 years, an all-time record. I have said it before - this is how recessions end. Eventually the consumer simply has to spend money to replace things, which increases demand, which increases employment and wages eventually. Consumers increase spending first, and then we get wage increases. 

Consumer Confidence rebounded in December to 82.5 from 75.1 the month before. 

The FHFA reported that home prices rose .5% month-over-month in October. Year-over-year they were up 8.2%. The U.S. index is 8.8% below its April 2007 peak. This index considers properties with a conforming mortgage only, so it isn't necessarily representative of the whole U.S. residential real estate market. 


Delinquencies ticked up 2.63% month-over-month according to LPS's "First Look" mortgage report. Delinquencies + foreclosures are just under 4.5 million homes. Separately, FHFA announced that it has completed more than 3 million foreclosure prevention actions.

Finally, Merry Christmas everybody..

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