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Friday, December 13, 2013

Morning Report 2013 worse than 1994

Vital Statistics

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1772.1 3.5 0.20%
Eurostoxx Index 2932.1 4.0 0.13%
Oil (WTI) 96.4 -1.1 -1.13%
LIBOR 0.244 0.001 0.41%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.17 -0.039 -0.05%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.86% -0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.7 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.4 0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.48

Markets are higher this morning after wholesale inflation came in lower than expected. Bonds and MBS are up.

Slow news day. Bonds are going to mark time until the FOMC meeting next week. Then that will probably be it for activity until the new year. The stronger economic data certainly gives the Fed enough reason to trim purchases slightly. 

It is looking like 2013 will be a worse year for bond funds than 1994, when Askin Capital Management and Orange County blew up as mortgages tanked. 

It looks like extended unemployment benefits are scheduled to lapse at the end of the year. Another provision that matters to us is the tax relief on short sales. When a person discharges their mortgage for less than the amount they owe, the IRS treats that as income. Starting Jan 1, people who have a short sale will also get a bill from the IRS. So far no word on whether that will continue. 

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