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Friday, December 6, 2013

Morning Report - Goldilocks jobs report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1802.1 18.1 1.01%
Eurostoxx Index 2977.9 24.7 0.84%
Oil (WTI) 97.63 0.3 0.26%
LIBOR 0.241 -0.001 -0.31%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.45 0.210 0.26%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.85% -0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2 -0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.5 0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.52

Markets are stronger this morning on a better-than-expected jobs report. Bonds and MBS are up small, in a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact."

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 203,000 in November, which beat the 185,000 street estimate. The unemployment rate fell to 7% as the labor force participation rate rose from 62.8% to 63%. Personal income fell, while personal spending rose .3%. All in all, consider this a "Goldilocks" jobs report from the stock market's perspective: strong enough to make people think about a better economy ahead, but weak enough to keep the Fed on your side. At the margin, it does make a tapering move more likely at the Fed this month.

It is looking like Janet Yellen and Mel Watt will be confirmed next week. 

Newark, NJ is moving forward with an eminent domain plan. As the cities that go this route get bigger and bigger, eventually Obama and Watt will have to take a position on this tactic. They will only be able to get away with the "it's a local issue" dodge so long. 

It looks like we are close to a budget deal, which takes another government shutdown off the table. No major spending cuts, no tax increases, however some additional revenue will be raised through increasing airport security fees and PBGC premiums.

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