A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Friday, December 20, 2013

Morning Report - 3Q GDP revised upward to 4.1%

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1805.8 3.7 0.21%
Eurostoxx Index 3037.7 6.7 0.22%
Oil (WTI) 98.84 -0.2 -0.20%
LIBOR 0.248 0.003 1.02%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.73 0.103 0.13%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.95% 0.02%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.8 -0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.52

Markets are higher this morning on the better-than expected 3Q GDP report. Bonds and MBS are down

The final revision to third quarter GDP came in at 4.1%. Inventory build accounted for a third of the gain, but services spending was revised up the most. Given that the first half of the year was relatively weak, a print like this represents a "catch up" more than a robust economy. Still, it seems like consumer spending is back, and that is a good sign. Consumers can only put off purchases for so long - eventually the car needs to be replaced, the clothes wear out, and you have to buy new ones. That is generally how recessions end. 

The test vote for Janet Yellen is today, which should be a nonevent. The full vote could come this weekend. Yellen is expected to be confirmed easily.

Freddie Mac has a cool interactive map where you can play with rates and downpayment to determine affordability in different areas. Suffice it to say Coastal CA, DC, Boston, and Miami are not affordable.

I appeared on Louis Amaya's Mortgage Markets Today show and discussed the Fed and the economy. Check it out here.

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