Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change	Percent
S&P Futures	1452.0	2.2	0.15%
Eurostoxx Index	2493.4	-2.7	-0.11%
Oil (WTI)	90.29	1.0	1.07%
LIBOR	0.347	-0.004	-1.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY)	79.64	0.098	0.12%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.72%	-0.02%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index	194.6	0.3

Markets are slightly higher this morning in spite of the fact that the IMF cut its global growth forecast. Alcoa kicks off earnings season after the close tonight.  S&P expects earnings to drop by 2% this quarter. Bonds are down slightly while MBS are up.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported small business optimism dropped slightly in September.  Overall, the mood is one of "uncertainty" and the outlook remains glum.  Topping the list of concerns was the rising cost of health care insurance, followed by economic conditions, energy costs, and taxes & regulation. Access to credit is not an issue anymore.

FBR banking analyst Paul Miller says its time to start falling in love with mortgage banks again. Of course virtually all of the publicly traded mortgage banks went under during the crisis. He makes an aggressive interest rate forecast - mortgage rates dropping to 3% over the next quarter or two.  As a result, he sees the refi boom lasting until late 2013. Ben Bernake's Refi Nation continues...

The battle over last Friday's surprising payroll continues with a novel angle:  the payroll employment survey numbers were too low. Needless to say, the interpretation of the jobs report has fallen along partisan lines, with those who doubt the numbers being compared to the black helicopter crowd.  Jack Welch opened up a hornet's nest with that tweet calling B.S. on the B.L.S. Is there an election coming up or something?