A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1437.2 1.3 0.09%
Eurostoxx Index 2467.5 -4.8 -0.19%
Oil (WTI) 92.42 0.0 0.03%
LIBOR 0.343 -0.004 -1.15%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.93 -0.018 -0.02%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.75% 0.03%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.8 0.1  

Markets are flattish after Alcoa cut its forecast for global aluminum demand in its earnings release.  Earnings were better than expected, but the forecast is weighing on the stock, which is down a couple of percent pre-open. Analysts are predicting a 2% drop in Q3 earnings for the S&P 500.  Mortgage applications fell. Bonds and MBS are down small.

Corelogic reported a 10% decline in shadow inventory down to 2.3 million units in July. This represents six month's supply.  Geographically, Florida, California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey account for 45% of all distressed properties. Currently, the flow of properties into shadow inventory is more or less equal to outflows. Remember that shadow inventory does not count properties currently listed on MLSs so it isn't a full picture of housing inventory.

The government is going after Wells for reckless lending on FHA loans. Prosecutors say the bank claimed over 100,000 loans were FHA compliant when it knew they were not. Wells notes that its FHA delinquency rates are half the industry average. Meanwhile, revenues are up 37%  for mortgage bankers and Wells is the biggest.  The government giveth, the government taketh away...

Issuers of MBS are going to be watching the outcome of the lawsuit against Flagstar closely.  Judge Rakoff is no friend of the securities industry...

FHFA has released its new strategic plan for the mortgage market. Housing advocates will dislike two portions of this - first the fact that there remains no interest in principal reductions, and second, that FHA remains interested in varying guarantee fees by state.  Which means that judicial states will have higher mortgage rates than non-judicial states. They also intend to review the servicing compensation model.

Fannie Mae has a touchy-feely survey of attitudes about homeownership and the economy.

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