A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Morning Report: New Home Sales rise

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2041.9 6.0 0.29%
Eurostoxx Index 3276.9 62.6 1.95%
Oil (WTI) 36.7 0.6 1.55%
LIBOR 0.593 0.008 1.30%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 98.38 0.141 0.14%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.26% 0.02%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.9
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.83

Stocks are up this morning on no real news. We are entering the end of year "window dressing" time where a lack of volume allows people to move stocks (at least temporarily). Bonds and MBS are down.

Big economic data dump today and tomorrow with the holiday shortened week. 

Mortgage Applications rose 7.3% last week as purchases rose 4.1% and refis rose 10.8%. 

New Home Sales rose to 490k from a downward revised 470k in November. Consumer sentiment rose to 92.6 from 91.8. 

Personal Income and Personal Spending rose 0.3% last month. 

PCE Inflation was flat on a month-over-month basis and up 0.4% YOY. The core PCE, which strips out volatile commodity related items rose 1.3% YOY. Inflation remains nowhere to be found. 

Durable goods orders were flat in November, and fell 0.1% ex-transportation. Capital Goods shipments (a proxy for business capital expenditures) fell 0.5%. The Street was looking for 0.5%, so that is a big miss. 

Existing Home Sales fell by a lot yesterday, which was largely attributed to TRID issues. Look at the chart - biggest drop in a long time - certainly since 2010 when the homebuyer tax credit expired. 


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